How Fleets Can Prepare for the 2027 EPA Regulations on Emissions for Class 8 Trucks

Q: As 2027 emission regulations get closer, what are the biggest unknowns for fleets?

A: One of the biggest unknowns is really the pricing for next year. We should know more within the coming months. The 2026 State of Sustainable Fleets Market Brief reported potential increases of $6,000 to $18,000 per truck. There is still lots to happen, but we anticipate a smaller number due to the new EPA proposed rulemaking on Amendments and Nonconformance Penalties for MY 2027 and Later Heavy-Duty Highway Engines, otherwise known as the “NOx Rule”.

In this proposed rule, EPA reverts back to the current 5-year / 100,000-mile warranty requirement rather than the 10-year / 450,000-mile standard previously finalized. Additionally, EPA proposes to delay the scheduled increase in useful life by three years so that the 11-year / 650,000-mile requirement for heavy-duty will take effect in 2030 rather than 2027.

These two provisions alone, along with other provisions of the proposed rule, are estimated to save thousands of dollars per new truck according to the EPA. In the end, it will ultimately come down to how original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) certify their engines. Some OEMs will certify at 200mg and realize the full non-compliance penalty (NCP), while some will certify at 35mg and charge the cost for the technology to be at 35mg. Some will land somewhere in between the 35mg and 200mg and use credits and/or realize a sliding scale of the NCP based on their level of NOx.

Another question is the reliability of the new engines. There are changes to the combustion chamber as well as enhancements to the aftertreatment system. Given the history of OEM rollouts, we are confident that the technology will have the level of reliability we expect. We know the systems will use more diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), and most OEMs are saying there will be some impact on fuel economy.

Q: What concerns are you hearing most often from customers?

A: Fleets are concerned about being the guinea pigs for the first-year engine. In past experiences with fleets, there has always been this concern about durability. With such a dramatic shift, fleets are concerned with what may happen.

With everything we’ve heard to this point, we should all feel okay because OEMs have been preparing for this for four years, properly educating their dealers and technicians, having the proper diagnostic capabilities and having the parts available for the new engines. Until the engines are in production and in various applications, we won’t know the true impact on fuel economy.

Q: Shifting to where we are today, equipment availability has become a major topic. What are you seeing?

A: We're definitely seeing a huge shift as we move into the third quarter. Earlier this year, there was a lot of quoting, but not a lot of purchasing decisions. The change has happened because everyone is aware of the price increases in 2027, build slots are at a premium and the freight recession is beginning to improve.

Some manufacturers are already sold out, while others are starting to close their order books because production is full. One concern is that there may be a period where there's no new equipment available between the end of model year 2027 production and the start of model year 2028.

Q: How should fleets approach equipment decisions when there are still so many unknowns?

A: If there's an opportunity to order equipment before the end of this model year, we recommend making that decision now if it's possible. I understand that isn't realistic for every fleet, but waiting comes with risk. Costs aren't going to get lower, and equipment availability is becoming more limited. That's why planning now is so important.

Q: Are fleets changing the way they're replacing equipment?

A: Absolutely. Because trucks are so much more expensive than they were a few years ago, many fleets are asking, "Can I do more with less?" Vehicles that were leased in 2019 and have expired, and possibly even been extended for a year or more, will cost more. Due to the COVID years, and we’ll call them the supply chain years, the cost of equipment has increased substantially. Customers getting a quote today are often surprised by the numbers.

Then, you factor in the additional increase due to the engine, and they are in this “what am I going to do” situation. They're looking closely at utilization and asking what equipment can safely stay in service a little longer. Those are important conversations to have, especially in today's freight environment.

Q: How can Penske help fleets decide which trucks should be replaced and whether they can improve utilization instead of simply adding equipment?

A: Communication and fleet evaluation are more important than ever. It starts with understanding how your fleet is actually being used. What equipment can be extended? What should be replaced now? Those sound like normal fleet planning conversations, but they're even more important with the 2027 transition approaching. This is what we do and what our team has been helping customers navigate for years.

One of the advantages Penske brings is data. We have so much operational data that we can help customers evaluate their fleet and make informed decisions about replacement timing and utilization.

With Catalyst AI™, customers can look at vehicle utilization, maintenance history and fuel efficiency, then compare those metrics against similar fleets. That helps identify underutilized equipment and determine whether there are opportunities to improve routing or asset utilization before investing in additional trucks. The system also highlights vehicles that may be costing more to maintain or operate, making it easier to prioritize replacement decisions.

Q: What's the biggest mistake fleets can make over the next few months?

A: The wait-and-see approach doesn't work in this situation. If you wait until after the new model year begins, you're likely looking at higher upfront costs, and you may have fewer equipment choices. If you know you'll need replacement equipment, it's better to plan now than react later.

Q: How is Penske preparing for the transition from the current engine to the EPA27 engine?

A: We've been in constant communication with our OEM partners for the better part of this year.

We've ordered multiple EPA 2027 trucks from our major OEMs because we want to test everything. We want our engineering team and our maintenance organization to evaluate these trucks before customers begin putting them into service.

Our leadership also stays closely connected with OEM leadership, EPA and legislators. These regulations continue to evolve, so we're staying involved in those conversations to understand what's coming and advocate for what makes sense for the industry. We are doing everything we should be doing to prepare ourselves for new technology in the industry. We feel it is our responsibility to be as prepared as possible to help customers through this uncertainty.

Q: How can Penske help fleets manage the uncertainty?

A: Use us. As I mentioned earlier, we have a tremendous amount of fleet data that we can use to help customers evaluate replacement timing and equipment decisions.

For customers using our full-service lease program, we also take on the maintenance risk. If there are concerns about first-generation engines or unexpected downtime, we help manage that, and we provide 24/7 roadside support and replacement vehicles to support uptime.

We're also investing heavily in technician training. We'll evaluate these new trucks in the Penske Technology Education Center (PTEC), develop repair procedures and create training so our technicians are ready before these engines become common in customer fleets.

How We Can Help Fleets Prepare for CY2027

Penske works with customers to evaluate fleet performance, identify replacement priorities and improve utilization so they can make informed decisions before investing in new equipment.